How many Australians will have dementia in 2050? The challenges of projection estimation

Mental health and wellbeing

Professor Laurie Brown is one of Australasia's leading health analysts and modellers. In this seminar she is presenting work undertaken by NATSEM through its participation in the DCRC-EDP initiative in estimating future numbers of people with dementia.

By reviewing different methodological approaches from basic demographic projections to cohort and dynamic microsimulation modelling, the work identifies a range of challenges involved in projection estimation, especially in trying to model the joint impact of multiple midlife risk and protective factors for late life dementia.