Estimating the global risk of the emergence, transmission, and spread of novel diseases

Most infectious diseases affecting humans today are casued by pathogens that used only to infect other animal species, but have evolved to infect humans. Wild animals continue be a source of new kinds or strains of infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola from bats, HIV from primates, SARS-CoV-2 probably from bats). The  emergence of new infectious diseases is most likely where humans often come into contact with wild animals such as disturbed natural environments, and this has been used to map of the risk of disease emergence globally. This project would build on these, to map the risk that a novel disease leads to local or regional epidemics or global pandemics.